The Opposite Test: the fastest strategy diagnostic.
Martin's fastest strategy diagnostic, Law III of Martins Three Laws: state your choice. State its opposite. Is the opposite stupid on its face?
If the opposite is obviously insane, "ignore our customers", "ship unreliable products", then the original statement is not a strategic choice. It is an operating imperative: something everyone does, that confers no advantage. If a thoughtful, well-resourced rival could defensibly choose the opposite, you have made a real choice.
Examples:
- Fails: "We will invest in innovation."
- Passes: "We will compete only in categories where we can reach #1 or #2."
- Passes (historic): Kennedy's moonshot, the USSR had not committed to a crewed lunar landing. See BHAGs Through Martins Lens.
The test cuts hardest on How to Win statements, where faked choices cluster. It is the quickest way to expose Playing to Play and the impostors in Strategy Impostors.
Companion diagnostics: The Cant-Wont Test for sustainability, What Would Have to Be True for decision-making.
Seam with the OKR system: run it on every draft Objective, failing the test usually means the goal is Business-as-Usual, not a bet. It also polices Wildly Important Focus.
Our synthesis of published thinking, Roger Martin and A.G. Lafley, Playing to Win (2013), and Martin’s subsequent writing, sources credited. Read the originals: they’re excellent.
Reading about method is not the same as running it. We install this system and build the capability that stays.
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