The Aristotle Distinction
The philosophical foundation of Martin's whole approach, borrowed from Aristotle's division of the world into two domains. Cannot be otherwise.
Cannot be otherwise. Physics, chemistry, gravity. The future is identical to the past, so data from history legitimately predicts tomorrow. The scientific method is perfect here.
Can be otherwise. Markets, customers, competitors, technology. The future is routinely different from the past, so historical data is not a representative sample of tomorrow. Statistical inference is formally invalid for the decisions that matter most.
Business education's fundamental error, in Martin's view: teaching analytical, data-based decision-making as if commerce lived in the first domain. It produces excellent analysts and poor strategists.
Consequences:
- Strategy is imagination disciplined by logic, Strategy as Logic Not Analysis
- You cannot prove a strategy in advance; you reason to a bet and test its conditions, What Would Have to Be True
- Judgment is built through practice and reflection, Strategy as Craft
- Moonshots are legitimate acts of imagination, wrongly pursued analytically, BHAGs Through Martins Lens
Our synthesis of Roger Martin’s published work, sources credited. Read the originals: they’re excellent.
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