From opinion to expected value
Most strategic debates are competing opinions stated with equal conviction. The fix is to make the value logic explicit: what would this decision change, by how much, with what probability? Ranges beat point estimates, because a point estimate hides how uncertain you really are. An expected-value view, even a rough one, turns "I think this is big" into something the leadership team can actually interrogate.
What to quantify
- The size of the prize. Revenue, margin or cost effect if the bet works, as a range.
- The probability it works. Stated explicitly, so it can be challenged.
- The cost of pursuing it. Including the initiatives you would have to stop.
- The cost of delay. What waiting six months actually costs you.
- The leading indicators. The early signals that tell you within a quarter or two whether the bet is landing.
Quantified this way, decisions become testable. The key results you set afterwards are simply the leading indicators you identified here, which is exactly how strategy connects to OKRs.