Two systems, one problem
Fast, intuitive System 1 thinking runs most of your day, and for routine calls that is fine. But strategic decisions made at System 1 speed inherit its flaws: confirmation bias seeks evidence you are already right, overconfidence understates the odds you are wrong, anchoring traps you in old assumptions, sunk cost keeps bad bets alive, and the planning fallacy convinces you it will all be done by Q3.
The briefing walks through each bias with leadership examples: the acquisition that confirmed what the CEO wanted to believe, the roadmap anchored to last year\u2019s strategy, the segment nobody would exit because of what had been invested.
The practices that catch them
- State beliefs with confidence levels. "I am 70% confident" invites challenge; a bare assertion invites silence.
- Seek disconfirming evidence. Assign someone to argue the other side before you commit.
- Run pre-mortems. Imagine the decision failed, then explain why. Risks you were suppressing surface fast.
- Create space for System 2. Big calls deserve deliberate thought, not corridor decisions.
These practices are the foundation the rest of the Strategy track builds on: they make every later choice, from valuation to full strategy formulation, more honest.